Europe must Rearm and Crush Russia

Expelling them from Ukraine is not enough

Europeans appear to be emerging from spineless and indolent stupidity, as they wake up to the fact that they need to re-arm. Let's hope they also wake up to the fact that they have to totally defeat Russian fascism and not just get a less bad deal for Ukraine.

Putin and his crowd wants to restore the Czarist empire and threatens people with nuclear weapons. They are inflicting death and misery on the people of both Ukraine and Russia. They are mortal enemies of democracy and practitioners of a very toxic dog-eat-dog ethno-nationalism. Who wouldn’t want to destroy these people?

The Europeans should have as their war aim the destruction of the Russian armed forces which would among other things lead to the liberation of Belarus and the occupied parts of Ukraine, and then enable the removal of all of Russia's nuclear weapons. This would obviously involve a considerable level of direct involvement and not just aid to Ukraine.

If the Russian regime is allowed to survive its Ukraine adventure and can concentrate on expanding its military capacity, Europe will have to beat them at this game and gain a considerable military edge. Given that Europe has a much larger population and economy, this is very achievable. This would reduce the risk of a Russian attack. At the same time Europe would be able to fight a war with less death and destruction, especially for its side. This is the case because the more that Russia is outmatched the less protracted the contest and the fewer temporary defeats.

Once Europe has become sufficiently strong it would actually be convenient if Russia did miscalculate and launch an attack. Europeans would unite and immediately rally to the cause. While attacking first would be perfectly justified it would be politically more difficult.

The priority will be on tracking down and removing nuclear and other WMDs. This may require bribes and other inducements for those controlling these weapons. What will happen in Russia is quite unpredictable, however, one can imagine a number of possible developments. Some regions may well secede. The rabid fascists and uber-nationalists in Russia will be greatly discredited and demoralized and may well be overthrown with the aid of disaffected troops. This could mean greater room to move for the democratic elements. When a more accountable and compliant government finally emerges it can be rewarded by having the blockade lifted followed by grants, investments and export markets. Victories for the bourgeois democratic revolution in Russia and other countries of the former Soviet Union would be a major contribution to the global struggle.

An average military spend of 3.5 percent of GDP seems to me to be a bare minimum, up from around 2 percent at the moment. Between 1933 and 1938 the UK’s Defense budget grew from 2.2% to 6.9% of GDP. It is a similar time frame, and definitely something to emulate. Spending on military support to Ukraine needs to more than double just to make up for the loss of US aid. And this level is unsatisfactory. We are looking at a very small percent of GDP which should at least be quadrupled.

Europe has to greatly expand its capacity to churn out ammunition and weapons. It also has to fill gaps created by relying on the Americans. In particular, there are anti-missiles like the Patriot and strategic enablers like satellite reconnaissance. It will take some years for Europe develop their own. Recruitment for a larger military force has to start now in order to ensure they have a well-trained army of sufficient size fairly soon.

This will require a guns before butter policy. In the butter category is a lot of tertiary education which is now widely recognized to be totally worthless. Everything except STEM and necessary skills training can be drastically cut. And as well as less butter, every country has boondoggles and lower priority projects that can be abandoned or postponed.

There will of course have to be less beer and skittles. However, the pain can be spread more fairly by raising the floor on living standards and more heavily taxing the affluent. Also the reduced total non-military spending can be better directed. I am thinking here particularly of making housing more affordable and available. A manufacturing sector that has been invigorated by arms expansion could devote more innovation and energy to a revolution in housing prefabrication and construction while the government is removing all NIMBY obstacles to large-scale housing development. And all this activity would provide lots of blue collar jobs for people who are presently susceptible to fifth columnist influence.